Parameterized Monte Carlo
Returns are sampled from disclosed long-run nominal assumptions with shared metals, equity, and defensive shocks. The model rebalances annually before applying returns.
MonkeyTactics Labs
Will your metals portfolio fund retirement?
Model inflation-adjusted retirement spending across gold, silver, platinum, palladium, miners, streamers, and cash.
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Read the model before trusting the number
What this first version calculates
Sector-aware model
Four bullion metals, seniors, juniors, royalty companies, and cash have separate return, volatility, and cost assumptions. These are planning inputs, not forecasts.
Budget solver
The minimum and additional spending rise together with inflation. A deterministic search finds the highest year-one total that retains your selected modeled survival rate.
Estimate assumptions from monthly history
Local data workshop
Build an estimate you can update over time
Import one row per month. Later imports append new months and replace matching months, so corrections are not counted twice. The history and estimates stay in this browser.
or paste CSV below
No saved history for Gold bullion.
How to prepare the data and where to find it
1. Collect monthly observations
Use month-end adjusted prices or total-return index levels. For miners and streamers, adjusted prices matter because they account for dividends and stock splits. Keep every series in the same currency and use the same month-end dates.
Useful starting points include LBMA precious-metal benchmarks, the Federal Reserve’s FRED database for CPI and short-rate research, documented mining indexes from MSCI or S&P Dow Jones Indices, and adjusted-price exports from your broker or fund provider. Access and reuse terms vary; do not redistribute data you are not licensed to share.
A quoted Treasury yield is an annualized interest rate, not a bond price or monthly return. Do not paste a yield into a price column. For the defensive reference, prefer a Treasury total-return index; a knowledgeable user may instead convert a short-rate series into monthly holding-period returns before import.
2. Choose simple or advanced CSV
Simple: provide date,asset. The tool estimates annualized compound return and volatility, while leaving the three existing factor values unchanged.
Advanced: also provide metals,equity,defensive. Use a broad precious-metals index, a broad total-return equity index, and a short-Treasury or high-quality bond index. With at least 24 matched returns, the tool estimates the positive shared-shock exposures too.
3. Interpret the estimate
At least 12 returns are required. Fewer than 60 months is a weak retirement-planning sample; 120–239 months is more stable. More months reduce sampling noise, but very old months may describe a different market regime, which is why the lookback is selectable.
Review the calculated values before relying on them. Historical compound return is not a forecast, correlation can change during crises, and this estimator deliberately ignores negative factor correlations because the current simulation uses positive shared-shock exposures.
Edit annual model assumptions
| Asset | Nominal return | Volatility | Annual cost | Metals factor | Equity factor | Defensive factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold bullion | % | % | % | |||
| Silver bullion | % | % | % | |||
| Platinum bullion | % | % | % | |||
| Palladium bullion | % | % | % | |||
| Senior miners | % | % | % | |||
| Junior miners | % | % | % | |||
| Royalty & streaming | % | % | % | |||
| Cash / T-bills | % | % | % |
Educational model only. Normal-like simulations can understate extreme market events, historical estimates can contain survivorship and selection bias, and no success percentage guarantees future results. User-supplied history calibrates assumptions; it does not turn the simulation into a forecast or historical bootstrap.
Why this is in Labs
A working calculator that asks more of you
This calculator works, but retirement planning for a precious-metals portfolio does not have one dependable set of numbers that fits everyone. Gold, silver, miners, and streaming companies can behave very differently depending on the period you study. Small changes to their expected returns, volatility, costs, and relationships can materially change the result.
In plain terms, the calculator can do the math, but it cannot know what the future will look like. The built-in assumptions are a starting point—not a promise. To get serious use from the model, you need to review the assumptions, enter values that match your holdings and outlook, and test more than one plausible scenario. That takes extra effort compared with a conventional calculator.
This began as an idea I wanted to explore: could a retirement withdrawal tool be built specifically for people whose portfolios are dominated by precious metals and the companies that produce them? I felt the concept was worth building and sharing, even though it asks motivated users to participate in the modeling rather than accept a single preset answer.
If you are genuinely interested in using this calculator, have relevant experience, or want to help shape where it goes next, I would like to hear from you.
Contact MonkeyTactics